Mean reversion strategies rely on the premise that extremes in price eventually revert to the mean price over time. They are effective during established markets – bull, bear or sideways – but unfortunately do not perform well during market regime changes or tail events. Tail events are outcomes that have …
Category: Trading Strategies
I was recently asked to be interviewed by Andrew Swanscott who runs bettersystemtrader.com. If you haven’t heard of this site before, it’s well worth a visit. Many of the trading legends that I have studied during the past ten years have shared their insights with Andrew during a Podcast. I …
In my last post we contrasted the effects of data integrity and sample size on the backtested performance of mean reversion and trend following models. In today’s post we’ll explore which markets are most suited to each approach, but before we do that, let’s quickly take a look at why …
Introduction A blog series to contrast the key distinctions between trend following and countertrend strategies during building, testing and trading. In this post we examine the effects of data integrity and simulated trade sample size on backtested performance. Price Data Integrity One of the major obstacles for traders looking to …
Short-Term Diffusion Enhances Trade Signals Following on from my previous post, in which I discussed a similar short-term diffusion approach, I’m going to share the performance of another simple breadth indicator this week. This study serves to confirm that breadth is a valuable addition to any trader’s toolkit. QuantTrade – …
Short-Term Diffusion – A Type of Breadth Indicator With the launch of Trading Stocks just around the corner I thought that it would be fun this week to explore one of the quantified breadth filters that clients will have access to in our new platform. The indicator that I’ll feature …
Before we discuss methods to exploit the tendency for the stock market to rise during month end, I wanted to share the performance of simply implementing the strategy in its raw form against its inverse. The results are rather impressive. EOM Strategy vs EOM Inverse Strategy Performance For the test …
Last week we explored the “best-day-of-the-week” theory and found no significant evidence to suggest that there is an optimal day of the week to trade. This week I’m going to test the theory that there is an optimal time of month to trade, and as you shall soon learn, things …
In my post “Engineering a Synthetic Volatility Index” I discussed a technique that I’ve developed to monitor broad market volatility with a Synthetic Volatility Index. Today I’m going to quantify our index by applying it to a liquid universe of equities as a simple entry filter. If volatility indeed has an …
I employ volatility analysis extensively in the hedge fund I manage both at the individual stock level and at the index level. Both types of analysis are essential if you hope to trade successfully, so in today’s blog I’m going to discuss each of them. Index volatility will however form …